Bob Graham – Riggs Asset Management Company

Hi there. This is Bob Graham from Riggs Asset Management Company. Today I want to talk about the markets and what we’ve seen over the last several weeks.

To put it bluntly, the markets have been ugly, and they were getting even uglier right up until the point when the administration decided to pause their tariffs.

Let’s talk about what we saw that may have caused that decision and what we think could happen going forward.

Most people focus on the volatility in the stock market, which has certainly been extraordinary. But what was even more dramatic was the volatility in the bond market.

In fact, I believe that’s what ultimately pushed policymakers to step back and pause the tariff implementation. At some point, the volatility reached a level where it was clear that things were becoming unstable and needed to calm down.

We saw volatility levels in the 10-year Treasury and broader Treasury markets that were extremely unusual. Quite frankly, we’ve rarely seen anything like it. The only comparable moments were during major financial stress events, including the 2008 financial crisis.

Now let’s look at what we’ve seen since Wednesday.

First, we experienced one of the strongest rallies in stock market history—likely among the top ten rallies ever recorded.

Second, we’ve started to see volatility come down, both in the stock market and in the bond market. That is a very positive development.

Hopefully, as time goes on, we’ll also see interest rates begin to moderate, which would further stabilize markets.

Another important development is what appears to be a potential shift in market behavior.

It looks increasingly likely that we may have put in a major bottom—or at least begun the process of forming one. We’re seeing more stocks improve, and even when markets pull back, those declines are becoming less severe.

That suggests we may be entering a bottoming process.

During this type of environment, investors often have the opportunity to look around and find attractive investments at discounted prices.

However, it’s important to understand that a bottoming process is exactly that—a process.

It will likely be bumpy, and it could take several months to fully develop. We may even see another lower point along the way, but with fewer stocks participating in the decline.

Because of that, what we’re doing right now is building our shopping list—identifying companies and investments that we’d like to purchase at attractive prices.

Think about it like going to the grocery store or a department store. When something you regularly buy suddenly goes on sale, that’s often the best time to purchase it. We think the market is starting to present some of those opportunities.

Now, I’d like to add a quick sidebar about tariffs.

Large corporations that purchase huge quantities of products—whether that’s televisions or millions of pairs of shoes—often have the scale and flexibility to work through tariff changes.

But small businesses are in a very different position.

The entrepreneur down the street may only have a few weeks or a month of inventory. Often, they purchase that inventory by writing a personal check or using their own credit.

Those smaller businesses could be significantly impacted by tariff changes or disruptions in supply chains.

So if you know a local business owner or enjoy their products, this might be a good time to support them. Shopping locally can make a real difference for small businesses during periods of uncertainty.

Returning to the markets, it appears that we’ve entered a bottoming process.

This process will likely take time and may remain choppy. But it’s possible that the extreme volatility we saw over the past several weeks is now behind us, and markets may begin the gradual process of stabilizing and building higher from here.

In the meantime, this could be an opportunity to look for quality investments that are currently trading at lower prices.

That’s exactly what we’re doing right now.

I hope you found this helpful. If you have any questions whatsoever—whether about the markets or your personal financial situation—please reach out to your Riggs team.

We’re always here to help.

Thank you very much.