Inflation Higher and Stocks Rip

This morning, the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported an increase of +0.40%, a “hot” reading, compared to Wall Street’s +0.30% expectation.  We believe that the higher than expected reading is driven largely by seasonality–resetting of new pricing on goods and services usually occurs in January.  Once we get past this first quarter, we expect inflation to continue its downward trend.  In his remarks last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated his commitment to cutting …

January, 2024 – Investment Market Recap

About half of the S&P 500 companies have now reported their quarterly earnings and those earnings reports have been fairly impressive, with a little more than 40% of those companies reporting earnings growth of 10% or more.  This is the highest this percentage has been since 2022, and it suggests that the earnings recession may be over. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2024 global economic forecast upwards, including its …

Inflation Softens and Sparks a Rally

As we’ve been noting for the last couple of weeks, some good economic data would likely ignite a year-end rally.  This week, economic data showed a sharp slowing in inflation pressures, driving a sharp downturn in interest rates and signaling that the Federal Reserve may be done raising short-term rates.  And in response, the S&P 500 turned higher by +2%.  As we stated last week, a lot of cash is sitting …

Impact of Israel-Hamas War on Investment Markets

It is a week since the horrific attack by Hamas on Israel.  You may wonder what the attack’s impact and subsequent escalation to an all-out war will have on the investment markets.  Typically, the initial market reaction is a decline, but losses are usually recouped within a month.  In reviewing the market reaction to crisis events over the last 100+ years, the S&P 500 Index has declined a median of …

Do Government Shutdowns Matter To The Stock Market?

On October 1, 2023, less than a week away, the U.S. Government faces a government shutdown.  A shutdown occurs when the federal government suspends services deemed non-essential because a new law to fund discretionary spending programs was not approved before the fiscal year deadline (October 1^st). When agreement on a new funding bill is not reached, Congress may pass a “continuing resolution” that extends previous funding levels …

The Backside of Peak Earnings Years

Regarding money and investing, it is easy to think about your life in two chapters—Chapter One is the Accumulation phase.  As you enter the workforce, you set aside money in investment and retirement accounts, savings accounts, and house fund accounts, you buy insurance, and generally build your wealth.  As you get older, usually starting in your mid-50s, you begin to think about the next Chapter—the Distribution phase.  If you …

Summer Jobs and Roth IRAs

As we head into Labor Day Weekend, we thought it was timely to talk about how parents can help their kids understand how summer jobs and investing can have a lasting impact on their future. At Riggs, many of our clients talk to us about helping to fund their child’s education.  Of course, that is an essential gift for their future.  But rarely do they talk to us about perhaps an even …

Robert J. Graham Interview with the Mitchell Institute

Recently, our Founder, Robert J. Graham, was invited onto the Aerospace Advantage Podcast produced by The Mitchell Institute.  We wanted to share this interview with our clients and friends as it speaks to Bob’s service in protecting the United States and is an example of the selfless courage of a young fighter pilot.  Here is a bit of Bob’s story in his own words.  

https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/episode-139-flying-and-fighting-against-the-odds-a-cold-war-perspective/

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In Episode 139 …

Tug of War

For those of us in the United States, we have just finished up the 4^th of July holiday filled with cookouts, fireworks, and maybe some old-fashioned field games like tug of war.  For investors, the U.S. stock market really feels like it is in a tug-of-war with the economy.  Large-cap technology companies geared toward artificial intelligence are on one side of the rope pulling strong, and a slowing economy with a risk of …